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[SpA]SaintK
 Post subject: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 15:38 
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Community slut (13474)
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I checked my case today for what items were in there, and to my surprise, all hats have been removed.

Anyone els noticed the same?
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 15:46 
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The Necromancer (4970)
No - Valve only removed the hats that were received by people because of the "item-spam bug".

I think they might not have done so for everybody (because they're noobs ;-) and people reported that they had e.g. one or two hats left after this - perhaps as a consolation price.

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dckjns
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 15:53 
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Has no REAL life! (1120)
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[SpA]Dekar
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 18:47 
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I haven't found a single hat yet! :x
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[SpA]Minimoose!
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 18:49 
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Now that is harsh.

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[SpA]lacop
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 18:55 
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Dekar wrote:
I haven't found a single hat yet! :x
You're not alone :(
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[SpA]cookye
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:05 
servers you right saint
MWHAHAHAHA haaaaaa
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:21 
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The Necromancer (4970)
I found a single hat so far and I've sworn to myself that I wouldn't play TF2 properly until I found the second one. So far after two weeks of idling (not 24/7 but still) I haven't even come close to finding the second hat. ;-)

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[SpA]Johnny
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:35 
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no hats here either :(
valve really needs to do something about this , i get that hats need to be rare finds but not this rare :cry:
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:41 
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The Necromancer (4970)
Again, to remind everybody. The chance of finding a hat is around 4% at each item check. According to someone's calculations you need 16 straight days of gameplay/idling to achieve a probability higher than 50% of having received a hat by then.
16 days!

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sebas
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:45 
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Has no REAL life! (3017)
I haven't found any hats either but removing the hats off the people that got them is a really stupid thing to do. It was not their fault, they did not exploit anything, it was Valve's fucked up system.

It would've been much better if they would've said "hey, we gave you guys a fucked up system. Sorry, but we're working on it. We know some people got all the hats because of a bug but we can't remove them off them since it was our fault so, here, we're giving everyone the chance to get one hat for free, for his favourite class, just pick one and you'll have it in your inventory by tomorrow. Hope this makes up for the, again, fucked up system."

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Last edited by sebas on 22 Jun 2009, 19:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Bartg
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:47 
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Yes it was valve fuckup and they cleared it the only possible way, of course if they removed any properly unlocked hat thats gay, but for sure they will remain rare ;)
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[SpA]lacop
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:48 
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[SpA]Lim-Dul wrote:
Again, to remind everybody. The chance of finding a hat is around 4% at each item check. According to someone's calculations you need 16 straight days of gameplay/idling to achieve a probability higher than 50% of having received a hat by then.
16 days!
Since 0.96^17 ~= 0.5 (96% of not getting, after 17 checks the chance you won't get anything is about 50%) that would mean the drop check is once a day ... I would say it's more often, but the probability is much much less.

I'm running the steamstats thing all the time and no hats :(
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 19:59 
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The Necromancer (4970)
Ah, sorry, yes, the chance is not 4%, it's 0.4%. Or close to that. ^^

Here's the link to the math one guy did:

http://www.sourceop.com/modules.php?nam ... 0394#20394

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Bartg
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 20:08 
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Got one hat in about 200 hours, so second one probably in about 250 hours :/
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[SpA]SaintK
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 20:59 
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[SpA]Lim-Dul wrote:
Again, to remind everybody. The chance of finding a hat is around 4% at each item check. According to someone's calculations you need 16 straight days of gameplay/idling to achieve a probability higher than 50% of having received a hat by then.
16 days!
I get that quota easally.
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[SpA]demm
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 21:39 
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Tbh counting idle time for that drop calculation is just silly. I bet this will be changed in the next patch, it's just something they didn't think of first. Maybe they'll even remove the items people got while idling. Maybe they have a way to differentiate idling and playing, but are not currently using it.
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[SpA]SonnyBlack
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 21:58 
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According to the statistics of the fake idle rogram, the chance of finding a hat is 0,05% and ~5% for usual stuff.
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Sawyer
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 22:12 
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[SpA]SonnY BlacK wrote:
According to the statistics of the fake idle rogram, the chance of finding a hat is 0,05% and ~5% for usual stuff.
These numbers are meaningless. Does this mean, my chances to find an item within one hour are at 5%, or what?
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 22:29 
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The odds of finding an item are actually increasing with time methinks and the item-tick is every 25 minutes AFAIK.

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[SpA]lacop
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 22:38 
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[SpA]Lim-Dul wrote:
The odds of finding an item are actually increasing with time methinks and the item-tick is every 25 minutes AFAIK.
Problem is, it can be set up in infinite ways. Reduce intervals, reduce chance and it'll look the same. We could use logs from steamstats and find some common lowest interval in the times but it's still just a guess and only valve knows the real numbers.
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 22 Jun 2009, 22:41 
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The Necromancer (4970)
Yeah, people from the SteamStats program are trying to figure out the system - so far they have these stats:

http://www.sourceop.com/modules.php?nam ... pic&t=1627

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[SpA]lacop
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 23 Jun 2009, 11:00 
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Yes, I've seen that, but it only shows that when it comes to the drop (which we can't really predict) there's just a 0.44% chance of getting a hat :(
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 23 Jun 2009, 12:02 
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The SteamStats thingie logs the time you receive items and given the minimum interval anybody received an item and the average amount of time they have extrapolated that the item ticks must be around every 25 minutes but yes, it's still guesswork.

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[SpA]cardboard
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 23 Jun 2009, 17:04 
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I found a beanie in the street the other day, but nothing in TF2 for week or so.... :(

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[SpA]Minimoose!
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 23 Jun 2009, 19:53 
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cardboardcutout wrote:
I found a beanie in the street the other day, but nothing in TF2 for week or so.... :(
Did it have a propeller on top? If not then it sucks to be you :cry:

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Bartg
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 24 Jun 2009, 12:52 
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Sooo Lim-Dul how's things ? Just go myself another hat - mining light :mrgreen:
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Lim-Dul
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 24 Jun 2009, 13:39 
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The Necromancer (4970)
Absolutely nothing.

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Bartg
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 24 Jun 2009, 15:27 
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Only 7 days between my both hat drops - Trophy Belt on 17.06 and Mining light 24.07 8)
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[SpA]Minimoose!
 Post subject: Re: no more hats?
PostPosted: 24 Jun 2009, 16:19 
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Arrrrggggghhhhhhh I just want the soldier/pyro one, I don't care which one.

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